Campaign Prediction Engine

17-factor scoring model projecting likely race outcomes.

DEMOSample Data — Replace with verified campaign information.
Win Probability
38%
Momentum
Rising
+4 pts in 30 days
Risk Rating
Medium
Confidence
64%
Moderate signal density

Win Probability by Candidate

Momentum Trend — Maria Chen

17-Factor Score Breakdown

Most Likely Outcome

Hayes wins seat 1; competitive race for seat 2 between Chen and Brooks. Chen most likely to take seat 2 if fundraising gap closes by Oct 1.

Best Case

Chen wins seat 1 outright (45%+) by consolidating issue voters and converting undecided Ward 1 households.

Worst Case

Hayes + Brooks split the seats; Chen finishes third by 2-4 points if turnout collapses below 28%.

Strategic Recommendation

  1. Prioritize fundraising — close 30% of gap with Hayes by Oct 1.
  2. Run a contrast on housing affordability — Hayes's weakest issue.
  3. Lock in 3 endorsements (civic, labor, faith) within 14 days.
  4. Concentrate field ops in Wards 1 & 3; cede Ward 2 to opponents.
Disclaimer: Predictions are estimates derived from available data and user-provided inputs. They are not guaranteed election outcomes. Use for strategic planning, not certainty.